A robust COVID-19 mortality prediction calculator based on Lymphocyte count, Urea, C-Reactive Protein, Age and Sex (LUCAS) with chest X-rays.

There have been numerous risk tools developed to enable triaging of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients with diverse levels of complexity. Here we presented a simplified risk-tool based on minimal parameters and chest X-ray (CXR) image data that predicts the survival of adult SARS-CoV-2 positive patients at hospital admission. We analysed the NCCID database of patient blood variables and CXR images from 19 hospitals across the UK using multivariable logistic regression. The initial dataset was non-randomly split between development and internal validation dataset with 1434 and 310 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, respectively. External validation of the final model was conducted on 741 Accident and Emergency (A&E) admissions with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection from a separate NHS Trust. The LUCAS mortality score included five strongest predictors (Lymphocyte count, Urea, C-reactive protein, Age, Sex), which are available at any point of care with rapid turnaround of results. Our simple multivariable logistic model showed high discrimination for fatal outcome with the area under the receiving operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) in development cohort 0.765 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.738-0.790), in internal validation cohort 0.744 (CI: 0.673-0.808), and in external validation cohort 0.752 (CI: 0.713-0.787). The discriminatory power of LUCAS increased slightly when including the CXR image data. LUCAS can be used to obtain valid predictions of mortality in patients within 60 days of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results into low, moderate, high, or very high risk of fatality.

Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive inpatients, which is linked to an increased mortality rate compared to patients without AKI. Here we analysed the difference in kidney blood biomarkers in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients with non-fatal or fatal outcome, in order to develop a mortality prediction model for hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. A retrospective cohort study including data from suspected SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a large National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust hospital in the Yorkshire and Humber regions, United Kingdom, between 1 March 2020 and 30 August 2020. Hospitalised adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with at least one confirmed positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 and blood tests of kidney biomarkers within 36 h of the RT-PCR test were included. The main outcome measure was 90-day in-hospital mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. The logistic regression and random forest (RF) models incorporated six predictors including three routine kidney function tests (sodium, urea; creatinine only in RF), along with age, sex, and ethnicity. The mortality prediction performance of the logistic regression model achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.772 in the test dataset (95% CI: 0.694-0.823), while the RF model attained the AUROC of 0.820 in the same test cohort (95% CI: 0.740-0.870). The resulting validated prediction model is the first to focus on kidney biomarkers specifically on in-hospital mortality over a 90-day period.

DenResCov-19: A deep transfer learning network for robust automatic classification of COVID-19, pneumonia, and tuberculosis from X-rays.

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is continuing to have a significant effect on the well-being of the global population, thus increasing the demand for rapid testing, diagnosis, and treatment. As COVID-19 can cause severe pneumonia, early diagnosis is essential for correct treatment, as well as to reduce the stress on the healthcare system. Along with COVID-19, other etiologies of pneumonia and Tuberculosis (TB) constitute additional challenges to the medical system. Pneumonia (viral as well as bacterial) kills about 2 million infants every year and is consistently estimated as one of the most important factor of childhood mortality (according to the World Health Organization). Chest X-ray (CXR) and computed tomography (CT) scans are the primary imaging modalities for diagnosing respiratory diseases. Although CT scans are the gold standard, they are more expensive, time consuming, and are associated with a small but significant dose of radiation. Hence, CXR have become more widespread as a first line investigation. In this regard, the objective of this work is to develop a new deep transfer learning pipeline, named DenResCov-19, to diagnose patients with COVID-19, pneumonia, TB or healthy based on CXR images. The pipeline consists of the existing DenseNet-121 and the ResNet-50 networks. Since the DenseNet and ResNet have orthogonal performances in some instances, in the proposed model we have created an extra layer with convolutional neural network (CNN) blocks to join these two models together to establish superior performance as compared to the two individual networks. This strategy can be applied universally in cases where two competing networks are observed. We have tested the performance of our proposed network on two-class (pneumonia and healthy), three-class (COVID-19 positive, healthy, and pneumonia), as well as four-class (COVID-19 positive, healthy, TB, and pneumonia) classification problems. We have validated that our proposed network has been able to successfully classify these lung-diseases on our four datasets and this is one of our novel findings. In particular, the AUC-ROC are 99.60, 96.51, 93.70, 96.40% and the F1 values are 98.21, 87.29, 76.09, 83.17% on our Dataset X-Ray 1, 2, 3, and 4 (DXR1, DXR2, DXR3, DXR4), respectively.

Use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection from Full Blood Counts in a population.

Since December 2019 the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has been identified as the cause of the pandemic COVID-19. Early symptoms overlap with other common conditions such as common cold and Influenza, making early screening and diagnosis are crucial goals for health practitioners. The aim of the study was to use machine learning (ML), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a simple statistical test to identify SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from full blood counts without knowledge of symptoms or history of the individuals. The dataset included in the analysis and training contains anonymized full blood counts results from patients seen at the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, at São Paulo, Brazil, and who had samples collected to perform the SARS-CoV-2 rt-PCR test during a visit to the hospital. Patient data was anonymised by the hospital, clinical data was standardized to have a mean of zero and a unit standard deviation. This data was made public with the aim to allow researchers to develop ways to enable the hospital to rapidly predict and potentially identify SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. We find that with full blood counts random forest, shallow learning and a flexible ANN model predict SARS-CoV-2 patients with high accuracy between populations on regular wards (AUC = 94-95%) and those not admitted to hospital or in the community (AUC = 80-86%). Here, AUC is the Area Under the receiver operating characteristics Curve and a measure for model performance. Moreover, a simple linear combination of 4 blood counts can be used to have an AUC of 85% for patients within the community. The normalised data of different blood parameters from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients exhibit a decrease in platelets, leukocytes, eosinophils, basophils and lymphocytes, and an increase in monocytes. SARS-CoV-2 positive patients exhibit a characteristic immune response profile pattern and changes in different parameters measured in the full blood count that are detected from simple and rapid blood tests. While symptoms at an early stage of infection are known to overlap with other common conditions, parameters of the full blood counts can be analysed to distinguish the viral type at an earlier stage than current rt-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 allow at present. This new methodology has potential to greatly improve initial screening for patients where PCR based diagnostic tools are limited.